出处：今日大马 Malaysia-Today.net /mt.m2day.org 『烈火莫熄』日——新黎明诞生之日
原文：Hari Reformasi, the day of a new dawn
原著/发表：拉惹柏特拉 Raja Petra Kamarudin
翻译：泽民 Jermin
校对,修正：CC LIEW （西西留博客站）
Hari Reformasi, the day of a new dawn
Ask the Malays in the opposition to come out in defence of their non-Malay brothers and sisters and warn the Umno Malays, in no uncertain terms, that they take to the streets at the risk of facing fellow Malays from the opposition who will defend their non-Malay brethren to the last drop of their blood.
还有就是要反对党的马来人出来保护他们的非马来人兄弟姐妹，清楚地警告巫统马来人，要是他们敢走上街头，他们得面对来自反对党马来同胞，反对党的马来人将会捍卫非马来人同胞直到流光最后一滴血。
权力走廊
今日大马
20 September 1998 was the day Malaysia saw its biggest demonstration in history. That was also the day Anwar Ibrahim was arrested by a SWAT team with faces hidden under balaclavas and armed to the teeth. It was not until a few days later that the world discovered Anwar had been beaten up by no less than Malaysia’s chief of police and left unconscious on the floor of his cell until the following morning -- where an alarmed police officer found him exactly where he had been left the night before, still unconscious.
1998年9月20日，马来西亚见证了历史上规模最大的示威游行。这一天也是安华被全副武装及蒙面的特别部队（SWAT）拘捕。几天之后曝光全世界的是，安华在狱中被大马总警长殴打以至昏迷在地上，直到第二天早上才被一名惊慌的警员发现他还依然昏倒在原地。
Anwar spent seven months in jail without bail while he faced trial on various charges of abuse of power and sexual misconduct. The reason they denied him bail was because he was a ‘threat to national security’, an allegation that had nothing to do with the charges he was facing. How Anwar can be charged for one offence and then denied bail for reasons that had no relation to the charge is probably something law students will be arguing about until the end of time. Only in Malaysia can the courts make up the rules as they go along and move the goalposts halfway through the game whenever they feel they are losing the plot.
安华在不获保释的情况下，在狱中待了七个月，等待面对各种各样控告的审讯，包括滥权与不正当性行为。他们拒绝让他保释的理由是他‘危害国家安全’，一个根本与他所面对的控告毫无关系的理由。安华为什么会被控告一项罪名，但却以令一个豪无相关的理由拒绝保释，这还有待念法律的同学们去研究研究了。相信只有在马来西亚的法庭才会在审讯途中，当他们发现失势时，制造一些条例以及转换目标。
The abuse of power charge Anwar faced was under Ordinance 22. That is an outdated law that had been repealed and had been replaced by new laws under the Anti-Corruption Act. Ordinances are laws introduced before Merdeka and Acts are laws introduced by Parliament after Merdeka. But somehow someone forgot to sign the papers so officially the law still existed. So they chose to charge Anwar under that law that had been unofficially repealed but officially was still valid since they forgot to sign the papers repealing that law.
安华是在第22条（Ordinance 22）下被控滥权的。这是一条过时的法律，它已经被撤销和被新的反贪污法（Anti-Corruption Act）所取代。条例（Ordinance）是是独立前所颁布的，而法令（Act）是独立之后由国会颁布的。但是由于某个人忘了签字，所以这条条例还算生效。因此，他们就利用这条因忘了签字而还没被正式撤销的条例来控告安华。
Anwar’s lawyers, of course, protested and argued that while the law had not quite been repealed due to an oversight, nevertheless that law can be considered repealed since Parliament had repealed it and it should not have been used against Anwar. The court, however, was of the opinion that it is up to the prosecutor what laws they would like to use against Anwar and since the old Ordinance had somehow been mistakenly ‘retained’, then there is nothing wrong in using that law against Anwar.
安华的律师团当然有抗议以及辩称，该条例虽然是基于人为疏忽而没有被正式撤销，然而该条例实际上是已经被撤销了，因为国会已经将它撤销，所以不应该用来对付安华。法庭的意见却是让诉方来决定选用那一道法律来对付安华，虽然该旧条例是被错误的‘保留’下来，但应用来对付安华却是没错的。
In other words, since someone forgot to sign the papers to repeal the law that Parliament had repealed, then there is nothing wrong in still using this law. As long as Anwar is charged before the date the papers are signed then the charge is valid, even if the papers are signed the very next day and that law no longer exists during the course of the trial.
换句话说，由于某些人忘记签字而没有撤销国会已经撤销的法律，应用该法律是没错的。只要安华是在签字前被控告的话，那还是有效的，尽管是在一天之后签了字而该法律在审讯时已不再复存在。
Anwar was found guilty and sentenced on 14 April 1999. In the meantime, he was forced to stay in jail since 20 September 1998, a period of seven months. Anwar was then sentenced to six years jail but the court refused to consider the seven months he had spent in jail without bail. The court decreed that his sentence would commence from 14 April 1999 and not 20 September 1998, as should have been the case.
安华被判有罪以及在1999年4月14日下判。于此同时，他自1998年9月20日以来就被关在监狱里头长达7个月。安华最终被判6年徒刑，而法庭也拒绝考虑之前的不获保释的那7个月。法庭宣判他的徒刑期将由1999年4月14日开始而不是从1998年9月20日，案件的开始那天算起。
Normally, your sentence starts from the day you are jailed, or what they would call the remand period. There have been many cases where detainees spend two or three years in jail because they can’t afford to pay the bail and when they are finally sentenced they walk out the day of sentencing because the sentence is shorter than the period of detention or remand. In Anwar’s case, the seven months he was in jail was totally ignored, so his jail sentence was not really six years but six years and seven months.
一般上，徒刑期是从你踏入监狱那天算起，也就是他们所称的还押期。有许多案例是扣留者在狱中待了两、三，甚至十年，因为他们付不起保释金，然当他们最终被下判时，他们可以在下判日当天就走出监狱，原因是被判的徒刑比扣留还押期还短。但是在安华一案中，先前的7个月却完全不算数，所以他的正真服刑期是6年又7个月。
Since Malaysia does not, at least then, have a parole system, you are allowed a one-third remission on your sentence. This means Anwar would have served his sentence by midnight of 20 September 2002. But they refused to release him on 20 September 2002. Instead, Anwar only saw freedom on 2 September 2004, almost two years longer than what he should have spent in jail.
虽然马来西亚没有假释制，但你会获得三分一的减刑。也就是说安华只需要服刑到2002年9月20日。但是他们拒绝在2002年9月20日释放他。安华是于2004年9月2日才获释，比他所需的多服了整两年。
Yes, it has been a long ten years for Anwar. He has endured more than what rapists, bank robbers, extortionists, kidnappers, pimps, drug pushers, loan sharks, currency forgers, and other hardcore criminals have had to endure. Even murderers have been treated better and at times even allowed bail, even though according to the law murderers are not allowed bail.
是的，对安华来说这是很漫长的十年。他比强奸犯，银行劫匪，勒索，绑票，扯皮条，贩毒，高利贷，印假钞等重罪的刑期还要久。甚至杀人犯的待遇比他还要好，杀人犯还可以获得保释，尽管法律上杀人是不被保释的。
Is Anwar about to finally enjoy the fruits of his ‘hard labour’? Has what he has gone through this last decade been worth it? We have only a few days more to see the answer to this question.
安华最终是否能品尝到他的‘辛苦’所换回来的果实了呢？他过去十年的经历是否值得？我们还有几天就能知道答案。
Anwar already has 34 Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament ‘in the bag’. The government knows this so they have sent these Members of Parliament to Taiwan for a ‘study tour’. They are supposed to all go study agriculture but they have taken their golf bags with them. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to know what they are going to do in Taiwan.
安华手中已有34个国阵的国会议员。政府是知道的，所以他们将这些国会议员统统送去台湾作『学习之旅』。这些议员们去到那里其实是要考察农业，但他们却把高尔夫球包也一块带去了。你不用很聪明就可以猜得到他们去台湾到底是为了什么。
While in Taiwan, the government will work on these Members of Parliament to try to persuade them to remain in Barisan Nasional and to not cross over to the opposition. The government knows that these Members of Parliament have already signed their letters and that these letters are now with Anwar. All Anwar needs to do is to present these letters to His Majesty the Agong to prove to the Agong that Abdullah Ahmad Badawi no longer commands the majority confidence in Parliament. So now they are also planning to send the Agong to Saudi Arabia to perform his Umrah. With the Agong out of the way, Anwar will not be able to present these letters to His Majesty.
在台湾，政府将会尽其所能说服这些国会议员在国阵和不要过档反对党。政府知道这些国会议员已经签了同意书，而这些同意书目前正在安华手中。安华只需将它们呈献给最高元首陛下，以向陛下证明阿都拉巴达威已经不再掌控国会的多数议席。所以他们现在正准备将最高元首送去沙特阿拉伯朝圣。要是最高元首不在的话，那安华就不能将这些同意书呈给陛下了。
Umno says there is no way Anwar can form the government on 16 September 2008, which is Malaysia Day. Never mind, they will all come home on 20 September 2008. If Anwar misses the 16 September 2008 deadline because the Members of Parliament and the Agong have all been sent away, there is still 20 September 2008. On 20 September 2008, everyone, the Agong included, will be home to see the new government being formed.
巫统说安华无法在在2008年9月16日，马来西亚日，成立新政府。但不要紧，他们全部都会在9月20日回国。要是安华错过了9月16日的大限是因为国会议员及最高元首都被支开了，那还有9月20日。2008年的9月20日当天，全部人，包括元首，都会回到来以见证新政府的成立。
In fact, 20 September 2008 may be a better day than 16 September 2008. 20 September is Reformasi Day. 20 September is the day, in 1998, when the Reformasi Movement was born. 20 September was the day they arrested Anwar and kept him in jail for six years. 20 September was the day Malaysians decided enough is enough and a change is necessary. 20 September was the day that saw the beginning of the end for Umno and Barisan Nasional. So what more apt day to choose to form the new government than on 20 September 2008, Reformasi Day?
实际上，2008年9月20日将是个更好的日子。9月20日是『烈火莫熄』日。1998年的9月20日就是『烈火莫熄』改革运动的诞生之日。9月20日那天也是他们拘捕安华并将他关了6年之久。9月20日，全马来西亚人民都认为，“受够了！改变是必须的！”。9月20日将是我们见证巫统及国阵灭亡的开始。所以还有那一天会比9月20日，『烈火莫熄』日成立新政府更加适合？
Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad has been persuaded to rejoin Umno. Tun will rejoin Umno and will support Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah in his bid to challenge Abdullah Badawi for the Umno Presidency. Umno is worried. They are worried that Malay political power will soon fall into the hands of the non-Malays. So they want the Malays to unite under a new Umno leadership so that the Malays can retain political power and the non-Malays will fail in their bid to wrest power from the Malays.
敦马哈迪已被劝服重新加入巫统。敦马重归巫统后将支持东姑拉沙里挑战阿都拉主席的职位。巫统很担心。他们担心马来人政治权力将会掉入非马来人手中。所以他们要求马来人团结在新的巫统领导层旗下，以便马来人能够重新夺回政治权力和让非马来人的夺权大计失败。
Khir Toyo has warned that if Abdullah Badawi does not resign and hand over power to the new leadership, then expect another May 13. The 13 Umno Penang divisions, Abdullah Badawi’s home state, have warned the non-Malays not to ‘push’ the Malays. If they do then they do so at their own peril, warns the 13 Umno Penang divisions.
基尔（Khir Toyo）警告说，要是阿都拉不辞职及移交权力给新领导层的话，将会期待另一场513。阿都拉家乡，槟州的13个巫统区部也警告非马来人不要‘挑战’马来人。这13个巫统区部警告说，要是他们不听的话，他们自己将承担后果。
Umno wants Parti Gerakan to be sacked from Barisan Nasional. There is no need to sack Gerakan. Gerakan has already decided to leave Barisan Nasional anyway. What they don’t know yet is whether they will leave Barisan Nasional and remain an independent ‘third force’ or whether they will join Pakatan Rakyat in the opposition coalition.
巫统要国阵开除民政党。其实不用开除，民政党已经决定离开国阵。他们还不懂的是离开国阵后应扮演‘第三势力’一角，还是加入人民联盟反对阵线。
MCA is also thinking seriously whether it still has a future in Barisan Nasional. They have thus far ‘severed ties’ with the Umno Bukit Bendera division chief. That is neither here nor there and an extremely weak attempt to demonstrate strength. MCA should severe ties with Umo Penang, like what Gerakan did, and not with just an individual who, after all, speaks not in his personal capacity but on behalf of Umno Penang, Abdullah Badawi’s home state.
马华公会也在正认真地考虑着他们继续留在国阵是否还有前途。他们已经和巫统升旗山支部主席‘断绝关系’。这是很无聊的，也是最弱示威方法。马华应该如民政党般，直接跟槟州巫统断绝关系，而不是只跟那区区一个人，更何况这个人不是以个人身份发言，而是代表着槟州巫统，阿都拉的家乡。
Of late there has been much talk of May 13. Umno is playing this issue to the hilt. This is, of course, meant to frighten the non-Malay Members of Parliament into remaining in Barisan Nasional and not leave to join Pakatan Rakyat, a shotgun wedding of sorts. Will this frighten the non-Malays? Will this force them to remain in Barisan Nasional? Or will this, in fact, have the reverse affect and just convince the non-Malays that there is even more reason to leave Barisan Nasional and join Pakatan Rakyat.
最近很多人都谈到513。巫统将这事件玩弄得淋漓精致。这当然是用来恐吓非马来人国会议员以留在国阵不要过档到民联，这就如逼婚一样逼。但是这又会否能吓唬到非马来人呢？这将会逼使他们继续留在国政？又或者会有相反的效果，使得非马来人更加有理由离开国阵而加入民联。
If Umno wants to trigger another ‘May 13’ will they have the numbers? Will the military support another ‘May 13’ like it did in 1969? The scenario in 1969 was very different from the scenario today and, as the Malays would say, “Takkan pisang berbuah dua kali”. In English this could probably translate to ‘lightning does not strike twice in the same place’.
要是巫统要触发另一场513的话，他们又是否拥有足够的人数呢？而军方又会否同1969年般支持另一场513？1969年的局势和今天的局势截然不同，就如马来谚语所说，‘香蕉不会结两次果（Takkan pisang berbuah dua kali）’。英语可以翻译成，‘闪电不会劈中同一个地方两次（lightning does not strike twice in the same place）’。
Umno has just come out with a new ruling for its branch meetings. The branches are required to have a quorum of 25% of its registered members to convene a meeting. Most branches have not been able to hold their meetings because they can’t get this quorum of 25%. That is all that is required, 25% of its registered members, but it can’t even get that.
巫统刚设了个新的支部会议规则。那就是支部会议必须要有25%的登记会员出席才算合法。因此，大多数支部的会议都无法召开，因为他们不能达到这个25%的指定人数。你看看，连25%的会员他们都无法凑足。
And why is this? Is it because the members are not interested in the AGM? Not really. This year is election year and everyone is very interested. In fact, many branch AGMs have ended in fisticuffs, chair throwing and acid attacks because of the intense fighting at these meetings. They are more than interested. They are concerned. But they can’t fulfil this 25% of registered members to make up a quorum because they just don’t have the members. The so-called registered members do not exist. Umno does not have the three million members it claims to have. It does not even have one million members. That is the reality and that is why they can’t even fulfil the 25% members quorum requirement.
而为什么呢？是会员都对常年大会不感兴趣吗？可不是。今年是党选年，每一个人都很感兴趣。实际上，很多支部的常年大会都在扭打，抛椅子，泼漒水中结束，因为会议斗争的太过剧烈了。他们对开会是很感兴趣和很在意的。但是他们却无法凑足这25%会员人数的要求，因为他们根本就没有这些会员。这些所谓的会员其实并不存在。巫统并没有他们所说的三百万党员。他们连一百万党员都没有。这是事实，而也就是为什么他们连25%会员人数都无法凑足。
In 1969, when you talk about the opposition, that would mean the non-Malays, and when you talk about the ruling party, that would mean the Malays. But that was 40 years ago. 40 years ago when you divide the country politically you invariably also divide the country racially. So, 40 years ago, it was very easy to divide the country by race when you divide the country by its politics.
在1969年，当你说起反对党就是指非马来人，而执政党就是指马来人。但那是40年前的事了。40年前，当你要以政治形式来区分这个国家时，无可避免的也是以种族来区分。所以在40年前，是很容易以种族来区分这国家，每当你要以政治来区分这个国家。
Today, there are more Malays in the opposition than there are in the ruling party. Umno garnered only 51% of the Malay votes on 8 March 2008. In the Permatang Pauh by-election, 70% of the voters were Malays. About 78% of the non-Malay voters, who represent 30% of the total voters, voted for Anwar. But Anwar won two out of three votes or 66.6%. This means 76%-77% of the votes came from the Malays.
今天，在反对党里的马来人比执政党还要多。巫统在308大选时只得到51%的马来人支持。然而在峇东埔补选中，70%的选民是马来人。有约78%的非马来人，代表着30%的总选民人数，投选了安华。但安华赢了三分二，也就是66.6%。也就是说，有76-77%的选票是来自马来人。
No, ‘May 13 Version 2’ can’t happen. The Malays do not feel that the non-Malays have taken over this country and have relegated them to second-class citizens. The Malays in Penang love their Chinese Chief Minister just like the Indians and Chinese in Perak love their PAS Menteri Besar. Malays in white skull caps wear DAP T-shirts. Indian-Hindu activists wear PAS T-shirts while screaming “Makkal Sakhti” followed by “Allah Akbar”.
不，513第二版不会发生。马来人并不会觉得非马来人控制了这个国家以及将他们贬为二等公民。槟州的马来人都爱戴他们华人首长，就如同霹雳的印度人与华人都爱戴他们的回教党州大臣。戴着白色头巾的马来人身穿行动党T恤。印度兴都教徒穿着回教党的T恤，高喊着淡米尔语“人民力量，Makkal Sakht”，以及阿拉伯语“真主万岁，Allah Akbar”。
“What about the army?” many concerned non-Malays ask. “Would they not be a cause for concern?” The nine Rulers are the Colonels-in-Chief of the Navy, Air Force, Infantry, Commandoes, Artillery, Malay Regiment, Engineering Corps, etc., while His Majesty the Agong is Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. No, the military will not take to the streets and murder innocent civilians unless their Commanders tell them to do so. And the nine Rulers and His Majesty the Agong are not about to give that order under any circumstances.
“那军方呢？”，很多担忧的非马来人会问。“他们不是其中一个顾虑吗？”。九个州的统治者分别是海军，空军，步兵，特击队，炮兵，马来兵团，工兵等的上校，而最高元首陛下是军队的总司令。不会，军方不会上街屠杀无辜的平民百姓，除非他们的总司令下令他们这么做。而这九个统治者和最高元首在任何情况下都不会这么做。
Nevertheless, while Umno may not have the three million members it claims to have and while the military is not about to go on a rampage, we must not discount the possibility that certain irresponsible people who are frustrated that they are no longer in power may attempt to trigger race riots. And Anwar must guard against this. And if it is necessary to delay the takeover a couple more weeks or so just to ensure that these elements can be dealt with before they start their evil deeds then so be it. A delay of one month is no big deal if this can guarantee peace and stability.
无论如何，尽管巫统没有宣称的三百万党员以及军方不会介入，我们也不能排除有些不负责任的人会担心失去权力而故意制造种族冲突。而这是安华必须提防的。要是有必要，夺权日将要延迟几个星期，以确保这些事情可以在他们发生前便解决了。要是这能保证和平及稳定，延迟一个月将不是大问题。
This is all Malaysians ask from Anwar and nothing more than that. Guard against anything untoward happening. Only when the coast is clear should you make your move. There should be no bloodshed and loss of life. And ask the Malays in the opposition to come out in defence of their non-Malay brothers and sisters and warn the Umno Malays, in no uncertain terms, that they take to the streets at the risk of facing fellow Malays from the opposition who will defend their non-Malay brethren to the last drop of their blood. I, for one, am ready to stand by my Chinese and Indian comrades. So let Umno be warned.
这是所有马来西亚人对安华的唯一要求。就是要提防任何不测的发生。唯有当障碍清除后才能前进。这是不能流血以及丧失生命的。还有就是要反对党的马来人出来保护他们的非马来人兄弟姐妹，清楚地警告巫统马来人，要是他们敢走上街头，他们得面对来自反对党马来人，反对党的马来人将会捍卫非马来人同胞直到流光最后一滴血。 而我，已经准备好同华人，印度人同志站在一起。这是给巫统的警告。
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Tuesday, 9 September 2008
『烈火莫熄』日——新黎明诞生之日
Thursday, 4 September 2008
《这些都在算盘中，笨蛋！》
出处：今日大马 Malaysia-Today.net 这些都在算盘中，笨蛋！
原文：It’s in the arithmetic, stupid
原著/发表：拉惹柏特拉 Raja Petra Kamarudin
翻译：泽民 Jermin /西西留 CC Liew
It’s in the arithmetic, stupid
这不只是要踢走国阵。这不只是要成立民联联邦政府。这是要保持种族之间的和平，稳定与和谐，以及避免让巫统有机会将整件事情种族化。
权力走廊
拉惹柏特拉
就在308大选后，《今日大马》便讨论过人民联盟能组成新的联邦政府的可能性，他们只需要有30个国阵议员过档。另一个《今日大马》的想法就是成立「联合政府」以促进大马的两党制政体。
毫无疑问的，两党制可以被人接受，但跳槽与联合执政的建议却不是这样。有的人甚至说我自大选后就「变」了，没有像从前一样说话。他们开始想我是不是遭受了「战斗衰竭症」，又或者是我操劳过度，需要休息以后再写。
我所患的「疾病」不过是政治现实（realpolitik）或是现实主义（pragmatism）的一种情况。让我们来看看：民联的82个国会议席到底可以做什么？他们甚至不足于能够阻止联邦政府蓄意破坏民联执政的五州。这很容易办到，只要堵住五州的发展拨款（如同他们在1999年对付登州那般），来届大选这几个州就会从新归入国阵手中（就如2004年在登州那样）。
一切皆是钱在作祟，只要州政府没钱，人民就会重新检讨是否还要让民联控制这些州属。看看2009年的财政预算案，这都是撒钱到最有可能跳槽的沙巴与砂劳越两州。巫统知道沙砂两州是最有可能的跳槽目标，所以他们答应挥撒几十亿到这两州去以确保他们留在国阵。
国阵拥有有140个国会议席，相对的人民联盟有82席——人民公正党31席，民主行动党28席及回教党23席，但那是全国的总席位。在半岛，民联共有80 席，相对的国阵有86席。是的！在半岛，国阵仅多民联六席而已。只要有三个半岛的国阵议员过档到民联，那么民联就有83席对付国阵的83席了。
国阵里头的「主要玩家」是巫统（79席），马华（15席），国大党（3席）及民政党（2席）。但有13个巫统的议席议席在沙巴。所以，在半岛，巫统只有66席，而马华，国大党与民政共有20系（国阵共有86席相对民联的80席）。
沙巴与砂拉越肯定是「造王者」。实际上，按照法律，沙砂两州必须要有25%的国会议席，也就是说他们一直都是造王者。而目前比以往更是，因为在半岛，国阵和民联的议席是几乎分成50对50。而实际上，在半岛，民联的得票率比国阵还要多（51%对49%）。只是当你加入沙砂两州的得票率后，这比率刚好相反。
而「王中王」就是由泰益马目领导的砂拉越土保党（PBB），共有14席。接下来的是沙巴巫统共13席。砂拉越人连党（SUPP）及砂拉越人民党（PRS）各有6 席，沙巴的民统（UPKO）与砂拉越的民进党（SPDP）各获4席——下来还有的是沙巴团结党（PBS）3席，沙巴进步党（SAPP）2席及沙巴的人民团结党（PBRS）和自民党（LDP）各一席。
总的来说，沙砂的56个国会议席中，巫统控制了13个，反对党（行动党）两个。剩下的41个掌控在东马国阵成员党手中。如果你把沙巴巫统的13席当作是「会员」席，那么东马的（国阵内）「敌对」议席就是54席了。再加上马华，国大党及民政，那民联就有74个议席可以「钓」了。
30席是民联所需要的而已，74席是很多，而这是假设66个半岛的巫统议席都留在国阵没有跳槽。
但要是79个巫统的国会议员都没有跳槽的话，这将会是问题。民联共有43位马来人国会议员，而非马来人39位。这还算可以，因为巫统不能说是非马来人控制反对党。但要有是30名非马来人国会议员过档到民联而使之能够组成新的联邦政府的话，那就有69为非马来人对43为马来人了。
这就是问题所在，也就是因为这样拖延了民联组成新联邦政府。安华的确是已经有了30席。其实还多过30席。但安华必须要非常小心的保持「平衡」。他不能组成一个拥有 69个或更多非马来人而只有43个马来人的新联邦政府，到时巫统将会捉住这点来「证明」巫统几个月前所说的：非马来人掌握政权与及马来人已经失去政权。
是的！这首歌巫统自308大选以来就一直在唱。巫统一直都在说，马来人的政治权利被侵蚀了。然而当30名或更多的非马来人国会议员过档民盟和成立新联邦政府后，马来人将失去政治权力。
在几个月前柔佛巫统的一个对话会中，他们说后悔在1957年8月31日把公民权给了移民。现在这些移民有了公民权后却不会感恩，而把选票投给反对党。这些移民其实一开始就不应该给他们公民权，这些代表们一个一个的说，敦马及拉沙里也是该对话会的嘉宾。
你能看到拉沙里在听到这后，仿佛受到剧痛般畏缩了。他知道国阵之所以在308遭受空前的羞辱，完全是应为这些。这样的言论将没有帮助，这只会使情况更加糟糕。
巫统在最近的大选中把种族牌玩弄的淋漓尽致。然而他们到现在还是，就如巫统升旗山区会主席，他们还是指责大马出生的华裔及印裔为外来移民，他们还是称华印裔为忘恩负义的寄居者，他们还是叫华人和印度人回去中国印度，尽管这些人是在大马出生而不是外国。
在三八全国大选前，人民进步党（People's Progressive Party，PPP）在马六甲主持了一个研讨会。在会中，巫统副主席和首席部长阿里鲁斯旦（Ali Rustam）告诉在场的一千名印度与会者说巫统不需要非马来人，他们甚至不需要沙巴和砂捞越。巫统在不需要非马来人，或沙砂人民的情况下，在马来西亚执政了50年，他们能够继续另外一个50年。
阿里鲁斯旦并没有被要求道歉，就连升旗山巫统区部主席也不需要，阿都拉巴达维说他是无意的。可是如果我曾说过类似的言论的话，明天一大早警察会出现在我家门口，我会被押到法庭，在24小时内被控煽动罪。这就是警方的高效率，即使我所说的内容不及巫统领袖所说的10%。
因为这种言论，这将触动跳槽，国阵的国会议员将会加入民联以组织一个新的联邦政府。巫统毫不尊重非马来人。巫统认为他们只需要买通沙砂两州，提供更多的发展资金，那他们就会继续死心塌地的做一只国阵的走狗。巫统知道马来西亚半岛的国会议席几乎是五五分账，因此，他们只需要贿赂沙砂两州，这样东马的54席就会继续留在国阵，巫统也最终继续抓紧主控权。
巫统也知道如果维持至少30个来自沙砂两州的30席，或甚至是马华、国大党或民政党的20席的话，跳槽人数将会不足。这将会造成民联的43个马来席位对联邦政府的69个非马来席位。这将正中巫统下怀，然后他们可以玩弄「马来人失去了政治权力」的种族牌，然后第二版的五一三将会成真。
这里有很多没有耐性的人，他们要安华今天就取代和成立新联邦政府，我们要求沙砂两州的30名国会议员现在就跳槽，他们要求安华告诉巫统去死吧！可是他不能这样做，他需要巫统，是的…他至少需要部分巫统党内人士。他需要至少15至20名巫统国会议员，联合 15至20名非马来人国会议员，一同跳槽，这样他才能够阻止一个保持种族均衡的新联邦政府。这样的话，巫统就没有藉口说马来人失去了政治权力，巫统也无法利用这个课题煽动马来人情绪，触动另一轮的种族骚乱，就像发生在1969年五月十三日那样的事件。
这不止是把国阵踢走，这也不仅是组织一个新民联联邦政府，这是关系到维持各族群间的和平、稳定及和谐，抗拒巫统利用这些作为种族课题的机会。
安华——为了全体人民，他知道这一点。这也就是为他在做出行动前，小心翼翼的涵盖所有的基本面。他要马来西亚迈向2009年，我们不要回到1969年，这就是整件事的关键。
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